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In the NFL Drafting game, there's
always pressure living up to first round expectations, but that pressure
is amplified when you're a Quarterback. If you fail as a RB or WR, you're
simply a bust. If you fail as a QB, you're not only labeled a bust,
but new obscenities are created in your honor. We call this the 'Ryan
Leaf Syndrome.' Thanks to Ryan, all first round draft picks (but especially
Quarterbacks) roam the NFL ranks with a bulls-eye on their forehead until
they show us something. The most amazing statistic of all however, is
QB success rate among the first rounders. It's almost a 50/50 shot (stud
versus dud). Let's take a closer look...
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1995
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ROUND
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PICK
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TEAM |
PLAYER |
SCHOOL |
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1
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3
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Houston Oilers |
Steve McNair |
Alcorn State |
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1
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5
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Carolina Panthers |
Kerry Collins |
Penn State |
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2
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60
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Pittsburgh Steelers |
Kordell Stewart |
Colorado |
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A very interesting year for QB drafting. The Houston Oilers (now
Tennessee Titans) selected Steve McNair out of small school Alcorn
State. Never before had a "small-schooler" been drafted
so high with such great expectations been placed upon him. McNair
didn't disappoint, as he led the Titans to playoff appearances
in 1999, 2000, 2002 and 2003, earning league co-MVP honors the
latter season throwing for over 3,200 yards and 24 TDs. McNair
also led the Titans to a Super Bowl appearance. Penn State, otherwise
known as Linebacker U, gave the NFL world a big, strong-armed
QB we've come know, love and loath as Kerry Collins. To say his
career has been rocky is an understatement, but Collins did eventually
settle in the Big Apple playing for New York's football Giants,
where he led the club to a Super Bowl appearance. Kordell Stewart,
Pittsburgh's second round pick, made a Super Bowl appearance
of his own and was thought, for a very brief moment, to be a revolutionary
'Slash' QB. The experiment didn't last long.
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1996
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ROUND
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PICK
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TEAM |
PLAYER |
SCHOOL |
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2
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42
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St. Louis Rams |
Tony Banks |
Michigan State |
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Otherwise known as the 'Dark Ages' for Quarterback drafting.
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1997
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ROUND
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PICK
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TEAM |
PLAYER |
SCHOOL |
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1
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26
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San Francisco 49ers |
Jim Drunkenmiller |
Virginia Tech |
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2
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42
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Arizona Cardinals |
Jake Plummer |
Arizona State |
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The 'Dark Ages' continue. So let's get this straight. The 49er
dynasty of the late '80's to mid '90's was predicated on big play
from big-time, Hall of Fame-caliber Quarterbacks. And the chain
of command was supposed to go Joe Montana - Steve Young - Jim
Druckenmiller? Are you kidding? Could anyone named 'Drunkenmiller'
be successful in the NFL? Or in any other line of work for that
matter? Based on Jim's career, the answer is emphatically "no."
Fortunately for the 49ers, Steve Young was still in town. A first
round draft pick (amazingly), Drunkenmiller's NFL career
lasted all of two seasons and the following numbers: 52 pass attempts,
21 completions, 239 total passing yards, 1 TD, 4 INTs, 1 sexual
assault allegation, and eventually a backup role in the Arena
Football League. Ouch. Better value was had in round two as the
city of the rising sun drafted local boy Jake 'The Snake' Plummer
42 nd overall. Plummer put up decent numbers for Arizona but was
eventually shipped off to Denver, where he made numerous playoff
appearances. He's taken his fair share of criticism over the years,
but Plummer has been a decent NFL starter - something that
could never be said for Drukenmiller.
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1998
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ROUND
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PICK
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TEAM |
PLAYER |
SCHOOL |
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1
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1
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Indianapolis Colts |
Peyton Manning |
Tennessee |
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1
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2
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San Diego Chargers |
Ryan Leaf |
Washington State |
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2
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60
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Detroit Lions |
Charlie Batch |
Eastern Michigan |
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3
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91
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Denver Broncos |
Brian Griese |
Michigan |
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6
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187
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Green Bay Packers |
Matt Hasselbeck |
Boston College |
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The year that changed Quarterback drafting forever. Would you
believe that most scouts and draft pundits had Manning and Leaf
locked in a virtual tie for top QB prospect overall? Both were
thought to be surefire studs in the NFL. Both had impressive college
careers, ideal NFL size and cannons for right arms. Indy was up
first. They went with name recognition, opting for Heisman runner-up
Peyton Manning (son of former NFL baller Archie), though they
were admittedly torn between the two prospects. San Diego had
the third pick of the draft, but traded up with the Arizona Cardinals
in order to land Leaf. A day that would live in QB drafting
infamy. Manning had a rough start in Indy, but threw for over
4,000 yards in six of his first seven seasons. Pro Bowls, MVPs,
numerous playoff appearances, establishing new passer records
- With every Manning success, Leaf responded in miserable
failure. Leaf's career was off to a bad start before he
even put on shoulder pads in San Diego. Signed to a four-year
contract worth $31.25 million (plus a then-record-high $11.25
million signing bonus), Leaf opted to skip the NFL's mandatory
rookie symposium, resulting in his first of many fines. An argument
with management led to yet another fine and suspension. Leaf wrapped
up his rookie season with 245 pass attempts, 2 TDs and 15 INTs.
The next year he was on injured reserve for a variety of injuries.
In season three, Leaf played only when the Chargers were out of
alternate options. After the 2000 season, Leaf was released (
San Diego celebrated) and picked up by numerous teams that thought
they could bring out the best in him. No luck. Leaf failed in
Tampa, Dallas and Seattle before leaving the game in 2002. Even
today, NFL bosses are slow to pull the trigger on drafting a QB
in round one simply to avoid "The Ryan Leaf Syndrome."
To add insult to San Diego's financial injury, Green Bay
nabbed an eventual All-Pro in Matt Hasselbeck that year (round
six), who was drafted by Mike Holmgren during his tenure with
Green Bay. When Holmgren relocated to the Emerald City, Hasselbeck
went with him, and the rest is history.
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1999
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ROUND
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PICK
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TEAM |
PLAYER |
SCHOOL |
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1
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1
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Cleveland Browns |
Tim Couch |
Kentucky |
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1
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2
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Philadelphia Eagles |
Donovan McNabb |
Syracuse |
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1
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3
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Cincinnati Bengals |
Akili Smith |
Oregon |
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1
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11
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Minnesota Vikings |
Daunte Culpepper |
Central Florida |
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1
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12
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Chicago Bears |
Cade McNown |
UCLA |
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4
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131
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Green Bay Packers |
Aaron Brooks |
Virginia |
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1999 wasn't just a Prince party song. Oh, no. It was also known
as "The Year of the Quarterback." Five QBs drafted in
round one and all of them within the top 12. When it happened,
you just knew it was a recipe for disaster. No way could all five
live up to that hype. No way! Donovan McNabb is the clear winner
of this class, but would you believe that Eagles fans actually
booed him and the Philly management team when the Eagles drafted
him? Imagine what the fans would've done otherwise! Had
the Eagles drafted Couch, McNown or Akili Smith, they likely would've
burned the city to the ground! And who'da thunk all three of those
stooges (Couch, Smith and McNown) would crash and burn in the
NFL?! Improbable. Impossible. Surely one could hang in there for
a losing team or something. Surely one could be just mediocre
enough to last seven or eight years as an average NFL starter.
C'mon! Couch, the first overall pick for what was technically
an expansion team in Cleveland, fizzled faster than pop rocks.
Cade McNown's best days (and nights) were spent at the Playboy
mansion. And Akili Smith...good Lord! Daunte Culpepper came out
of it alright, but among those other names, all he had to do was
tie his shoes to look good. Culpepper was almost the best of this
class until he followed up his sex romp at sea in Minnesota with
blowing out every possible ligament in his knee in 2005. Hard
to recover from an injury like that…or a cruise ship sex
romp for that matter. Aaron Brooks turned out to be a starting-caliber
QB in the NFL, but of course, "starting-caliber" doesn't
exactly imply "productive."
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2000
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ROUND
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PICK
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TEAM |
PLAYER |
SCHOOL |
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1
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18
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New York Jets |
Chad Pennington |
Marshall |
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6
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168
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New Orleans Saints |
Marc Bulger |
West Virginia |
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6
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199
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New England Patriots |
Tom Brady |
Michigan |
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By the time the 2000 Draft rolled around, word was out. The
"Ryan Leaf Syndrome" clearly had NFL draftmen in a state
of absolute panic. The impending failures of the class of '99
QBs made this a pandemic of unparalleled proportions. Long-time
NFL Scouts were running for the hills; QB Coaches jumping to their
deaths from the tallest building they could find; fans playing
Russian Roulette on Draft Day. No one wanted a scar on their resume
or their franchise. When it came to Quarterbacks, "Proceed
with extreme caution" was clearly the theme of Draft Day
2000. Chad Pennington was drafted late in round one. Pennington
never had a cannon for an arm, but his personality/character/leadership
skills would at least soften the blow if he did become the next
victim of "Ryan Leaf Syndrome." Fortunately for the
Jets and their fans, Pennington has been a solid QB minus some
arm, elbow and shoulder injuries during his career. Very little
QB activity happened after Pennington at #18 overall. NFL Draftmen
knew that neither they're reputation nor the franchise would
be tainted by the drafting of a QB in round six. It was officially
safe to go back in the water and draft a QB. Jackpot! New Orleans
drafted a solid starter in Marc Bulger, but they didn't realize
it then and opted to place their future squarely on the shoulders
of the very incapable, very incompetent Aaron Brooks. Oops. Bulger
found success running the 'Greatest Show on Turf' in St. Louis.
And how about those Patriots? The sleeper pick of Tom Brady not
only brought three championships to New England over a four year
span, but it also served as the remedy to the "Ryan Leaf
Syndrome" outbreak.
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2001
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ROUND
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PICK
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TEAM |
PLAYER |
SCHOOL |
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1
|
1
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Atlanta Falcons |
Michael Vick |
Virginia Tech |
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2
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32
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San Diego Chargers |
Drew Brees |
Purdue |
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Michael Vick: Slash reincarnated - only this time he has
some arm strength. Vick has been an interesting character in his
NFL career. Sure he has talent, including decent arm strength
and the wheels capable of getting him over 1,000 yards rushing
a season, but he's meant more than that to the Falcon franchise
and its fanbase. Vick's big-game ability has packed the stadium.
Even if he never wins a meaningful playoff game or a Super Bowl
ring, he's proven to be worth every penny of being the #1 pick
overall. Drew Brees was the first pick of the second round, and
his assignment in San Diego was to bring Charger fans out of their
Ryan Leaf-induced coma. Brees did an admirable job thanks to a
little help from LaDainian Tomlinson, who was also a product of
San Diego's 2001 Draft class (see
the Running Back Breakdown). In 2006, Brees was responsible
for lifting another franchise from near-ruin when he took over
in New Orleans.
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2002
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ROUND
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PICK
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TEAM |
PLAYER |
SCHOOL |
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1
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1
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Houston Texans |
David Carr |
Fresno State |
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1
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3
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Detroit Lions |
Joey Harrington |
Oregon |
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1
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32
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Washington Redskins |
Patrick Ramsey |
Tulane |
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4
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108
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Jacksonville Jaguars |
David Garrard |
East Carolina |
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David Carr was drafted first overall and charged with the unenviable
task of leading an expansion franchise in Houston. Carr has size,
athleticism and decent arm strength, but leading a team from expansion
mode to contender mode has been a major challenge. Throw in a coaching
change and Carr has struggled, but not nearly as much as Joey Harrington
did in Detroit. Harrington lasted four disappointing seasons in
Motown and was eventually dealt to Miami, the same season (2006)
the Dolphins signed Daunte Culpepper. While Carr and Harrington
at least managed to get their careers off the ground, the next first
rounder (Patrick Ramsey) was stalled on the runway. Deal to the
Jets prior to the 2006 season, Ramsey became third on the depth
chart and is currently fading from the game. David Garrad may be
a midget QB by NFL standards, but he's proven to be a very
capable backup behind Byron Leftwich (drafted one year later) in
Jacksonville.
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2003
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ROUND
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PICK
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TEAM |
PLAYER |
SCHOOL |
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1
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1
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Cincinnati Bengals |
Carson Palmer |
USC |
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1
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7
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Jacksonville Jaguars |
Byron Leftwich |
Marshall |
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1
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19
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Baltimore Ravens |
Kyle Boller |
California |
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1
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22
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Chicago Bears |
Rex Grossman |
Florida |
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3
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97
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Tampa Bay Bucs |
Chris Simms |
Texas |
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After winning a Heisman Trophy at USC, Carson Palmer was selected
first overall by the Cincinnati Bengals, formerly known as the
Bungles considering their streak of losing seasons and draft busts.
Palmer didn't make an immediate impact for the Bungles, but once
he got his feet wet, he not only put up great numbers in Cincinnati
but he also pulled the franchise out of the cellar and back to
respectability. His success was almost great enough to help fans
forget about that Akili Smith draft pick back in '99, but not
quite. Byron Leftwich isn't a world-beater, but he's been productive
for a Jacksonville team predicated on defenses first and foremost,
a team that made numerous playoff appearances during Byron's tenure.
Kyle Boller still has time to put his career back on track, but
he could never turn his arm and his athleticism into wins for
the Ravens, forcing Baltimore to look elsewhere for QB help (Steve
McNair) in 2006. After a multitude of injuries early in his career,
Rex Grossman finally showed the NFL world his capabilities in
2006. Chris Simms was a nice steal in round three. While he may
not be starting-caliber material in the NFL, Simms did emerge
as Tampa Bay's starter during the 2005 season and put up solid
numbers. Then his spleen burst.
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2004
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ROUND
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PICK
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TEAM |
PLAYER |
SCHOOL |
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1
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1
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San Diego Chargers |
Eli Manning |
Mississippi |
|
1
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4
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New York Giants |
Philip Rivers |
North Carolina State |
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1
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11
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Pittsburgh Steelers |
Ben Roethlisberger |
Miami (OH) |
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1
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22
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Buffalo Bills |
J.P. Losman |
Tulane |
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The year of the Manning controversy. Drafted #1 overall by San
Diego, Eli (and papa Archie) apparently had something against
warm weather, beautiful scenery and sunny beaches. The Mannings
must've thought that the bikini-clad babes on San Diego beaches
would've been far too distracting for young Eli, so they petitioned
for a trade and got it; Eli was basically dealt to the Giants
in exchange for their first round pick, Philip Rivers. Like his
older brother Peyton, Eli is putting a very solid career together.
Rivers played the waiting game in San Diego while his predecessor
(Drew Brees) rejuvenated his career. In 2006, Brees was eventually
let go and Rivers took the reigns of the Charger offense. Then
there's the story of Big Ben, who experienced more ups and downs
in his first three seasons than most QBs experience in a lifetime.
In only his second season, Roethlisberger brought a championship
title back to the Steel City. He celebrated by recklessly riding
a motorcycle without a helmet, crashing horrifically, undergoing
reconstructive surgery, ridding himself of that pesky appendix,
then putting together one of the worst "Junior" seasons
(at least as a key member of a title-defending team) in recorded
history (2006). The big three of this class will go down as smart
draft picks and accomplished NFL Quarterbacks, but that's where
the line is drawn. Poor J.P. Losman, a comedy of errors in virtually
every NFL start for Buffalo, is on the outside looking in, begging
his '04 QB classmates to let him in and play.
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Closing Remarks...
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Being drafted in the first round is one thing. Being drafted
first overall is entirely different. The Manning
brothers, Carson Palmer, Michael Vick; no one can dispute their
impact on the game or their production. Or a few names we didn't
even mention because of the 10 year window we worked with? John
Elway was drafted first overall (1983). So was Troy Aikman (1989)
and Drew Bledsoe (1993). Quarterbacks come into the league with
higher expectations than any other player at any other position.
Because of that, we demand so much from them.
With the exception of Tim Couch (and possibly David Carr depending
on your grading scale), few QBs drafted #1 overall have been apocalyptic
failures. But QBs drafted in round one, even those who aren't
first overall, are still richly rewarded and expected to do great
things for their new franchise. That's why it's so hard to recover
from hangovers brought on by first round draft busts at Quarterback.
Draft Busts happen all the time and never discriminate based
on color or position. The poster boy for draft busts in the past
ten years (if not all-time), is still Ryan Leaf. His career put
a major black eye on the art and science of QB drafting, not to
mention all the one-liners he's been associated with. Because
of Ryan Leaf and all the others like him (first round busts who
failed on smaller scales), NFL bosses and fans alike will forever
close their eyes, cross their fingers and hold their collective
breath when they go after their next "franchise QB."
Happy Drafting!
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Related Items: Special
Draft Features | Draft History | Complete
Draft Coverage | Team Pages
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