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The Quarterbacks NFL Report.com

 

In the NFL Drafting game, there's always pressure living up to first round expectations, but that pressure is amplified when you're a Quarterback. If you fail as a RB or WR, you're simply a bust. If you fail as a QB, you're not only labeled a bust, but new obscenities are created in your honor. We call this the 'Ryan Leaf Syndrome.' Thanks to Ryan, all first round draft picks (but especially Quarterbacks) roam the NFL ranks with a bulls-eye on their forehead until they show us something. The most amazing statistic of all however, is QB success rate among the first rounders. It's almost a 50/50 shot (stud versus dud). Let's take a closer look...

1995
ROUND
PICK
TEAM PLAYER SCHOOL
1
3
Houston Oilers Steve McNair Alcorn State
1
5
Carolina Panthers Kerry Collins Penn State
2
60
Pittsburgh Steelers Kordell Stewart Colorado
 

A very interesting year for QB drafting. The Houston Oilers (now Tennessee Titans) selected Steve McNair out of small school Alcorn State. Never before had a "small-schooler" been drafted so high with such great expectations been placed upon him. McNair didn't disappoint, as he led the Titans to playoff appearances in 1999, 2000, 2002 and 2003, earning league co-MVP honors the latter season throwing for over 3,200 yards and 24 TDs. McNair also led the Titans to a Super Bowl appearance. Penn State, otherwise known as Linebacker U, gave the NFL world a big, strong-armed QB we've come know, love and loath as Kerry Collins. To say his career has been rocky is an understatement, but Collins did eventually settle in the Big Apple playing for New York's football Giants, where he led the club to a Super Bowl appearance. Kordell Stewart, Pittsburgh's second round pick, made a Super Bowl appearance of his own and was thought, for a very brief moment, to be a revolutionary 'Slash' QB. The experiment didn't last long.

1996
ROUND
PICK
TEAM PLAYER SCHOOL
2
42
St. Louis Rams Tony Banks Michigan State
 

Otherwise known as the 'Dark Ages' for Quarterback drafting.

 
1997
ROUND
PICK
TEAM PLAYER SCHOOL
1
26
San Francisco 49ers Jim Drunkenmiller Virginia Tech
2
42
Arizona Cardinals Jake Plummer Arizona State
 

The 'Dark Ages' continue. So let's get this straight. The 49er dynasty of the late '80's to mid '90's was predicated on big play from big-time, Hall of Fame-caliber Quarterbacks. And the chain of command was supposed to go Joe Montana - Steve Young - Jim Druckenmiller? Are you kidding? Could anyone named 'Drunkenmiller' be successful in the NFL? Or in any other line of work for that matter? Based on Jim's career, the answer is emphatically "no." Fortunately for the 49ers, Steve Young was still in town. A first round draft pick (amazingly), Drunkenmiller's NFL career lasted all of two seasons and the following numbers: 52 pass attempts, 21 completions, 239 total passing yards, 1 TD, 4 INTs, 1 sexual assault allegation, and eventually a backup role in the Arena Football League. Ouch. Better value was had in round two as the city of the rising sun drafted local boy Jake 'The Snake' Plummer 42 nd overall. Plummer put up decent numbers for Arizona but was eventually shipped off to Denver, where he made numerous playoff appearances. He's taken his fair share of criticism over the years, but Plummer has been a decent NFL starter - something that could never be said for Drukenmiller.

1998
ROUND
PICK
TEAM PLAYER SCHOOL
1
1
Indianapolis Colts Peyton Manning Tennessee
1
2
San Diego Chargers Ryan Leaf Washington State
2
60
Detroit Lions Charlie Batch Eastern Michigan
3
91
Denver Broncos Brian Griese Michigan
6
187
Green Bay Packers Matt Hasselbeck Boston College
 

The year that changed Quarterback drafting forever. Would you believe that most scouts and draft pundits had Manning and Leaf locked in a virtual tie for top QB prospect overall? Both were thought to be surefire studs in the NFL. Both had impressive college careers, ideal NFL size and cannons for right arms. Indy was up first. They went with name recognition, opting for Heisman runner-up Peyton Manning (son of former NFL baller Archie), though they were admittedly torn between the two prospects. San Diego had the third pick of the draft, but traded up with the Arizona Cardinals in order to land Leaf. A day that would live in QB drafting infamy. Manning had a rough start in Indy, but threw for over 4,000 yards in six of his first seven seasons. Pro Bowls, MVPs, numerous playoff appearances, establishing new passer records - With every Manning success, Leaf responded in miserable failure. Leaf's career was off to a bad start before he even put on shoulder pads in San Diego. Signed to a four-year contract worth $31.25 million (plus a then-record-high $11.25 million signing bonus), Leaf opted to skip the NFL's mandatory rookie symposium, resulting in his first of many fines. An argument with management led to yet another fine and suspension. Leaf wrapped up his rookie season with 245 pass attempts, 2 TDs and 15 INTs. The next year he was on injured reserve for a variety of injuries. In season three, Leaf played only when the Chargers were out of alternate options. After the 2000 season, Leaf was released ( San Diego celebrated) and picked up by numerous teams that thought they could bring out the best in him. No luck. Leaf failed in Tampa, Dallas and Seattle before leaving the game in 2002. Even today, NFL bosses are slow to pull the trigger on drafting a QB in round one simply to avoid "The Ryan Leaf Syndrome." To add insult to San Diego's financial injury, Green Bay nabbed an eventual All-Pro in Matt Hasselbeck that year (round six), who was drafted by Mike Holmgren during his tenure with Green Bay. When Holmgren relocated to the Emerald City, Hasselbeck went with him, and the rest is history.

1999
ROUND
PICK
TEAM PLAYER SCHOOL
1
1
Cleveland Browns Tim Couch Kentucky
1
2
Philadelphia Eagles Donovan McNabb Syracuse
1
3
Cincinnati Bengals Akili Smith Oregon
1
11
Minnesota Vikings Daunte Culpepper Central Florida
1
12
Chicago Bears Cade McNown UCLA
4
131
Green Bay Packers Aaron Brooks Virginia
 

1999 wasn't just a Prince party song. Oh, no. It was also known as "The Year of the Quarterback." Five QBs drafted in round one and all of them within the top 12. When it happened, you just knew it was a recipe for disaster. No way could all five live up to that hype. No way! Donovan McNabb is the clear winner of this class, but would you believe that Eagles fans actually booed him and the Philly management team when the Eagles drafted him? Imagine what the fans would've done otherwise! Had the Eagles drafted Couch, McNown or Akili Smith, they likely would've burned the city to the ground! And who'da thunk all three of those stooges (Couch, Smith and McNown) would crash and burn in the NFL?! Improbable. Impossible. Surely one could hang in there for a losing team or something. Surely one could be just mediocre enough to last seven or eight years as an average NFL starter. C'mon! Couch, the first overall pick for what was technically an expansion team in Cleveland, fizzled faster than pop rocks. Cade McNown's best days (and nights) were spent at the Playboy mansion. And Akili Smith...good Lord! Daunte Culpepper came out of it alright, but among those other names, all he had to do was tie his shoes to look good. Culpepper was almost the best of this class until he followed up his sex romp at sea in Minnesota with blowing out every possible ligament in his knee in 2005. Hard to recover from an injury like that…or a cruise ship sex romp for that matter. Aaron Brooks turned out to be a starting-caliber QB in the NFL, but of course, "starting-caliber" doesn't exactly imply "productive."

2000
ROUND
PICK
TEAM PLAYER SCHOOL
1
18
New York Jets Chad Pennington Marshall
6
168
New Orleans Saints Marc Bulger West Virginia
6
199
New England Patriots Tom Brady Michigan
 

By the time the 2000 Draft rolled around, word was out. The "Ryan Leaf Syndrome" clearly had NFL draftmen in a state of absolute panic. The impending failures of the class of '99 QBs made this a pandemic of unparalleled proportions. Long-time NFL Scouts were running for the hills; QB Coaches jumping to their deaths from the tallest building they could find; fans playing Russian Roulette on Draft Day. No one wanted a scar on their resume or their franchise. When it came to Quarterbacks, "Proceed with extreme caution" was clearly the theme of Draft Day 2000. Chad Pennington was drafted late in round one. Pennington never had a cannon for an arm, but his personality/character/leadership skills would at least soften the blow if he did become the next victim of "Ryan Leaf Syndrome." Fortunately for the Jets and their fans, Pennington has been a solid QB minus some arm, elbow and shoulder injuries during his career. Very little QB activity happened after Pennington at #18 overall. NFL Draftmen knew that neither they're reputation nor the franchise would be tainted by the drafting of a QB in round six. It was officially safe to go back in the water and draft a QB. Jackpot! New Orleans drafted a solid starter in Marc Bulger, but they didn't realize it then and opted to place their future squarely on the shoulders of the very incapable, very incompetent Aaron Brooks. Oops. Bulger found success running the 'Greatest Show on Turf' in St. Louis. And how about those Patriots? The sleeper pick of Tom Brady not only brought three championships to New England over a four year span, but it also served as the remedy to the "Ryan Leaf Syndrome" outbreak.

2001
ROUND
PICK
TEAM PLAYER SCHOOL
1
1
Atlanta Falcons Michael Vick Virginia Tech
2
32
San Diego Chargers Drew Brees Purdue
 

Michael Vick: Slash reincarnated - only this time he has some arm strength. Vick has been an interesting character in his NFL career. Sure he has talent, including decent arm strength and the wheels capable of getting him over 1,000 yards rushing a season, but he's meant more than that to the Falcon franchise and its fanbase. Vick's big-game ability has packed the stadium. Even if he never wins a meaningful playoff game or a Super Bowl ring, he's proven to be worth every penny of being the #1 pick overall. Drew Brees was the first pick of the second round, and his assignment in San Diego was to bring Charger fans out of their Ryan Leaf-induced coma. Brees did an admirable job thanks to a little help from LaDainian Tomlinson, who was also a product of San Diego's 2001 Draft class (see the Running Back Breakdown). In 2006, Brees was responsible for lifting another franchise from near-ruin when he took over in New Orleans.

2002
ROUND
PICK
TEAM PLAYER SCHOOL
1
1
Houston Texans David Carr Fresno State
1
3
Detroit Lions Joey Harrington Oregon
1
32
Washington Redskins Patrick Ramsey Tulane
4
108
Jacksonville Jaguars David Garrard East Carolina
         

David Carr was drafted first overall and charged with the unenviable task of leading an expansion franchise in Houston. Carr has size, athleticism and decent arm strength, but leading a team from expansion mode to contender mode has been a major challenge. Throw in a coaching change and Carr has struggled, but not nearly as much as Joey Harrington did in Detroit. Harrington lasted four disappointing seasons in Motown and was eventually dealt to Miami, the same season (2006) the Dolphins signed Daunte Culpepper. While Carr and Harrington at least managed to get their careers off the ground, the next first rounder (Patrick Ramsey) was stalled on the runway. Deal to the Jets prior to the 2006 season, Ramsey became third on the depth chart and is currently fading from the game. David Garrad may be a midget QB by NFL standards, but he's proven to be a very capable backup behind Byron Leftwich (drafted one year later) in Jacksonville.

 

2003
ROUND
PICK
TEAM PLAYER SCHOOL
1
1
Cincinnati Bengals Carson Palmer USC
1
7
Jacksonville Jaguars Byron Leftwich Marshall
1
19
Baltimore Ravens Kyle Boller California
1
22
Chicago Bears Rex Grossman Florida
3
97
Tampa Bay Bucs Chris Simms Texas
 

After winning a Heisman Trophy at USC, Carson Palmer was selected first overall by the Cincinnati Bengals, formerly known as the Bungles considering their streak of losing seasons and draft busts. Palmer didn't make an immediate impact for the Bungles, but once he got his feet wet, he not only put up great numbers in Cincinnati but he also pulled the franchise out of the cellar and back to respectability. His success was almost great enough to help fans forget about that Akili Smith draft pick back in '99, but not quite. Byron Leftwich isn't a world-beater, but he's been productive for a Jacksonville team predicated on defenses first and foremost, a team that made numerous playoff appearances during Byron's tenure. Kyle Boller still has time to put his career back on track, but he could never turn his arm and his athleticism into wins for the Ravens, forcing Baltimore to look elsewhere for QB help (Steve McNair) in 2006. After a multitude of injuries early in his career, Rex Grossman finally showed the NFL world his capabilities in 2006. Chris Simms was a nice steal in round three. While he may not be starting-caliber material in the NFL, Simms did emerge as Tampa Bay's starter during the 2005 season and put up solid numbers. Then his spleen burst.

2004
ROUND
PICK
TEAM PLAYER SCHOOL
1
1
San Diego Chargers Eli Manning Mississippi
1
4
New York Giants Philip Rivers North Carolina State
1
11
Pittsburgh Steelers Ben Roethlisberger Miami (OH)
1
22
Buffalo Bills J.P. Losman Tulane
 

The year of the Manning controversy. Drafted #1 overall by San Diego, Eli (and papa Archie) apparently had something against warm weather, beautiful scenery and sunny beaches. The Mannings must've thought that the bikini-clad babes on San Diego beaches would've been far too distracting for young Eli, so they petitioned for a trade and got it; Eli was basically dealt to the Giants in exchange for their first round pick, Philip Rivers. Like his older brother Peyton, Eli is putting a very solid career together. Rivers played the waiting game in San Diego while his predecessor (Drew Brees) rejuvenated his career. In 2006, Brees was eventually let go and Rivers took the reigns of the Charger offense. Then there's the story of Big Ben, who experienced more ups and downs in his first three seasons than most QBs experience in a lifetime. In only his second season, Roethlisberger brought a championship title back to the Steel City. He celebrated by recklessly riding a motorcycle without a helmet, crashing horrifically, undergoing reconstructive surgery, ridding himself of that pesky appendix, then putting together one of the worst "Junior" seasons (at least as a key member of a title-defending team) in recorded history (2006). The big three of this class will go down as smart draft picks and accomplished NFL Quarterbacks, but that's where the line is drawn. Poor J.P. Losman, a comedy of errors in virtually every NFL start for Buffalo, is on the outside looking in, begging his '04 QB classmates to let him in and play.

 

Closing Remarks...

Being drafted in the first round is one thing. Being drafted first overall is entirely different. The Manning brothers, Carson Palmer, Michael Vick; no one can dispute their impact on the game or their production. Or a few names we didn't even mention because of the 10 year window we worked with? John Elway was drafted first overall (1983). So was Troy Aikman (1989) and Drew Bledsoe (1993). Quarterbacks come into the league with higher expectations than any other player at any other position. Because of that, we demand so much from them.

With the exception of Tim Couch (and possibly David Carr depending on your grading scale), few QBs drafted #1 overall have been apocalyptic failures. But QBs drafted in round one, even those who aren't first overall, are still richly rewarded and expected to do great things for their new franchise. That's why it's so hard to recover from hangovers brought on by first round draft busts at Quarterback.

Draft Busts happen all the time and never discriminate based on color or position. The poster boy for draft busts in the past ten years (if not all-time), is still Ryan Leaf. His career put a major black eye on the art and science of QB drafting, not to mention all the one-liners he's been associated with. Because of Ryan Leaf and all the others like him (first round busts who failed on smaller scales), NFL bosses and fans alike will forever close their eyes, cross their fingers and hold their collective breath when they go after their next "franchise QB."

Happy Drafting!

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